Brutally dry conditions in parts of Southern Europe have led to a significant downturn in hydropower generation so far in 2022, exacerbating an already perilous situation in the energy market as the EU faces gas shortage.
A new study assesses the risks of floods and water scarcity to hydropower projects and how those risks may shift due to climate change. Several regions of the United States with hydropower are among those where river basins are projected to have the greatest increase in risk of water scarcity by 2050. Future droughts could potentially create challenges for hydropower projects, especially in Montana, Nevada, Texas, Arizona, California, Arkansas and Oklahoma.
The study finds that by 2050, 81 percent of all global hydropower dams will be in basins with very high or extreme risk for droughts, floods or both. By 2050, 3 in 5 existing hydropower dams will be in high flood risk areas because of climate change, up from 1 in 25 today. Only 2 percent of planned dams are in basins that currently have the highest level of flood risk, but by 2050, nearly 80 percent of this same group of dams will be in basins with the highest flood risk.
Reputable experts projects that southern Africa will face increased drought risk due to climate change, with associated disruptions to hydropower. In addition to periodic drought, climate change will make Zambia drier overall, with declines in average river flows and a 60% reduction in hydropower generation.
This rising risk is not limited to Africa.
Do you recognize the problem? What do you think needs to be done already today to resolve the problem?